Thrilling, isn’t it?

If you are feeling scared this morning, you are in good company.

The market as judged by the SPY is on the verge of breaking down.  The IWM is weak.  Commodities prices do not encourage a bright short term future.  Technology is running out of steam if you look at the QQQ.

Why?

Is it fear of interest rate hikes to be announced next week?

Are fund managers just waiting to see how their peers react after the big announcement?

Are institutions just getting light to avoid the uncertain risks of the coming weeks?

Are investors thinking the bull run is over as signaled by the leading indicator of crashing commodity prices?

I have a secret for you.  Listen carefully, and listen well.

Nobody knows.

The ONLY thing that matters for short term money is price direction.  You cannot make money if you sell at a lower price than you bought.

I will take my lumps and take some losses by closing some positions to the long side, particularly my small cap holdings, if the market does not rally hard with conviction today.

Faith is a bad idea in the market.  Be agnostic and follow the plan.

 

 

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