Read the above linked to piece.
The take away from the analysis is simple.
Stay long in a bull market.
I will add to the “common sense” in the above analysis.
Stay long in a bull market, even if you take profits here and there and step aside on occasion to re-evaluate positions. No shame in that approach.
Staying long in a bull market is like walking a 5 foot wide beam 2000 ft above a gulping gorge. It is a good risk if there is a reward on the other side. 5 ft. is plenty for a stroll. Scary as heck, but you can do it.
If you try and call the top, and remain uninvested as a result, you will lose money.
You are terrified of losing your hard earned money? You should be. That is a problem with a solution.
Buy stocks and ETFs at support or breakout points, limit your position size until you have a profit cushion, and always have an exit strategy.
Hate taking a stop loss? You are not alone. If you cannot take a stop, at least commit to starting all positions with a small size that can lose 50% of it’s value without hurting you too much.
Only add to winning positions, but be warned. A big winner can become a loser if you have no plan for exit. Take profits along the way, or trail a stop.
If you cannot do any of the above, get a pro to run your money.