Model Portfolio


Still all cash.  I know it is burning a hole in you pocket!  Just looking for a lower risk entry closer to support, with a successful test followed by a move higher on volume.

This model port is not designed to outperform, but rather to TEACH risk management skills you can use in any market.

There is risk being on the sidelines when the market is moving higher, but buying when the market seems to have support significantly below current levels is a greater risk.

This assumes your desire is to keep your portfolio as close to all time highs, all the time.


All cash for now.  Out of EBAY and HTZ.

Watch the video chart review tonight to see what today’s exuberant action could be telling us.



Model Portfolio Wrap:

After getting shaken out of the full SPY position at the low of the day early on in the AM, the market reversed higher and closed at the high of the day on high volume!  The SPY ran from our stop to our entry price uphill after first bucking us off.  That hurts!  Good lessons to learn as we will discuss in the video later.

EBAY: 1/4 position still alive but slightly red.

HTZ:   1/4 position still alive and green.

Cash is ready for 2013!


The SPY is a full position ( 1 out of a possible 5).  It is getting close to the failure point and getting stopped out.  Take the stop if need be.  No way to know how the market will react to the very real risks coming out of policy decisions in Washington.  We have no edge, so we just let support and resistance points decide if we want to own stock or cash.

HTZ is hanging in there (1/4 of 1 position of a possible 5) but it will be jettisoned if the market rolls over.

EBAY (1/4 position) is also on this ice.  Stops in place.

If the market rolls over and takes us out of all our positions, we will be pleased to have preserved our capital and will look for new opportunities.

Model Port 12-27-2012


EBAY and HTZ are just 1/4 positions based on a theoretical 5 position portfolio, so they are each 1/20 of the entire portfolio value.

SPY is a full position.

Below is a chart with the performance of these hypothetical holdings from the date of purchase.  With the market losing steam, check back regularly to see if stops are being adjusted.

Model Port 12-26-2012



We stopped out of CELG.

Model Port 12-24-2012


Model Port 12-20-2012 Pre market

The below Video shows you how to paper trade the model portfolio.  This is an exercise for educational purposes only.  Your goal should be to learn about managing your exposure to risk, how the stock market behaves, and to learn how you react to that experience.  Follow the progress daily.




Raising stops on HTZ to 15.49

Raising Stops on EBAY to 50.14

Raising stops on CELG 78.49

Raising stops on the SPY (all of it) 141.79


Added full position of SPY at 142.52 with a stop on half at 139.99


Added CELG, 1/4 position in at 81.92, stop 76.81


We are stopped out of COST  at 98.28



We are stopped out on QIHU at 24.95


HTZ Added to Model Portfolio at $16, 1/4 Position, stop $14.78



QIHU in at 27.42 stop at 24.95 1/4 position see home page for video.

EBAY in at 52.15 stop at 47.95 1/4 position see home page for video.

11/30/2012: COST was added to the model port at 103.86, 1/4 position size to start, stop at 98.66 11-30-2012

Check out the video for more information:


11/28/2012:  Market open, Stops are hit and we are back to 100% cash for now.


AAPL:  Started position on 11/16/2012  at a price of 510, current stop as of 11/28/2012 is 577

V:          Started position 11/16/2012  at a price of 141.50 current stop is 146.20

GLD:    Started position 11/16/2012 at a price of  166, current stop is 168